Third Quarter 2026 Economic And Revenue Forecast
- 08/26/26
Outlook Shows Steady Growth and Limited Recession Risk
Salem, OR – Oregon’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience as state leaders released the Third Quarter 2026 Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast on August 26. The forecast, presented by State Chief Economist Carl Riccadonna and Senior Economist Michael Kennedy of the Department of Administrative Services Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), to the Senate Committee On Finance and Revenue, provides a transparent look at current economic trends and informs Oregon’s budgeting process for the coming biennium.
A More Balanced Economic Landscape
This quarter’s outlook highlights strengthening domestic demand across the U.S., even as consumers and businesses navigate higher energy costs and ongoing tariffs. Importantly for Oregon, recent state gross domestic product data shows that the state’s growth rate has closed much of the gap with national performance, an encouraging shift after several years of post-pandemic lag. Labor conditions remain stable, supported by a steady unemployment rate. However, inflation pressures continue to affect household budgets and business operations. Despite these headwinds, economists report that recession risks remain largely unchanged from earlier assessments, suggesting no significant increase in downturn likelihood.
Revenue Forecast: A Mixed but Manageable Picture
Revenue is estimated to be up $55 million for the current 2025-27 biennium and $538 million for the 2027-29 biennium compared to the previous forecast. While the overall picture is relatively steady, underlying trends vary:
- Strong withholding receipts are boosting personal income tax projections.
- Estimated corporate income tax payments are lower than expected.
- Estate tax collections continue to trail expectations.
- Higher interest earnings reflect persistently high interest rates.
These mixed indicators suggest the state may be transitioning from slower economic activity in recent years toward anticipated acceleration ahead. With ten months remaining in the biennium, Oregon’s projected General Fund ending balance stands at $400 million.
About the Office of Economic Analysis
The Office of Economic Analysis provides objective forecasts of the state’s economy, revenue, populations, corrections population and Youth Authority population. These forecasts are used across state government and by the public for a variety of reasons, including the state budgeting process. To explore recent reports or learn more about OEA’s forecasting work, visit the Office of Economic Analysis website.
Third Quarter 2026 Economic And Revenue Forecast
- 08/26/26
Outlook Shows Steady Growth and Limited Recession Risk
Salem, OR – Oregon’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience as state leaders released the Third Quarter 2026 Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast on August 26. The forecast, presented by State Chief Economist Carl Riccadonna and Senior Economist Michael Kennedy of the Department of Administrative Services Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), to the Senate Committee On Finance and Revenue, provides a transparent look at current economic trends and informs Oregon’s budgeting process for the coming biennium.
A More Balanced Economic Landscape
This quarter’s outlook highlights strengthening domestic demand across the U.S., even as consumers and businesses navigate higher energy costs and ongoing tariffs. Importantly for Oregon, recent state gross domestic product data shows that the state’s growth rate has closed much of the gap with national performance, an encouraging shift after several years of post-pandemic lag. Labor conditions remain stable, supported by a steady unemployment rate. However, inflation pressures continue to affect household budgets and business operations. Despite these headwinds, economists report that recession risks remain largely unchanged from earlier assessments, suggesting no significant increase in downturn likelihood.
Revenue Forecast: A Mixed but Manageable Picture
Revenue is estimated to be up $55 million for the current 2025-27 biennium and $538 million for the 2027-29 biennium compared to the previous forecast. While the overall picture is relatively steady, underlying trends vary:
- Strong withholding receipts are boosting personal income tax projections.
- Estimated corporate income tax payments are lower than expected.
- Estate tax collections continue to trail expectations.
- Higher interest earnings reflect persistently high interest rates.
These mixed indicators suggest the state may be transitioning from slower economic activity in recent years toward anticipated acceleration ahead. With ten months remaining in the biennium, Oregon’s projected General Fund ending balance stands at $400 million.
About the Office of Economic Analysis
The Office of Economic Analysis provides objective forecasts of the state’s economy, revenue, populations, corrections population and Youth Authority population. These forecasts are used across state government and by the public for a variety of reasons, including the state budgeting process. To explore recent reports or learn more about OEA’s forecasting work, visit the Office of Economic Analysis website.