Third Quarter 2026 Economic And Revenue Forecast - 08/26/26

Outlook Shows Steady Growth and Limited Recession Risk

Salem, OR – Oregon’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience as state leaders released the Third Quarter 2026 Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast on August 26. The forecast, presented by State Chief Economist Carl Riccadonna and Senior Economist Michael Kennedy of the Department of Administrative Services Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), to the Senate Committee On Finance and Revenue, provides a transparent look at current economic trends and informs Oregon’s budgeting process for the coming biennium.

A More Balanced Economic Landscape

This quarter’s outlook highlights strengthening domestic demand across the U.S., even as consumers and businesses navigate higher energy costs and ongoing tariffs. Importantly for Oregon, recent state gross domestic product data shows that the state’s growth rate has closed much of the gap with national performance, an encouraging shift after several years of post-pandemic lag. Labor conditions remain stable, supported by a steady unemployment rate. However, inflation pressures continue to affect household budgets and business operations. Despite these headwinds, economists report that recession risks remain largely unchanged from earlier assessments, suggesting no significant increase in downturn likelihood.

Revenue Forecast: A Mixed but Manageable Picture

Revenue is estimated to be up $55 million for the current 2025-27 biennium and $538 million for the 2027-29 biennium compared to the previous forecast. While the overall picture is relatively steady, underlying trends vary:

• Strong withholding receipts are boosting personal income tax projections.
• Estimated corporate income tax payments are lower than expected.
• Estate tax collections continue to trail expectations.
• Higher interest earnings reflect persistently high interest rates.

These mixed indicators suggest the state may be transitioning from slower economic activity in recent years toward anticipated acceleration ahead. With ten months remaining in the biennium, Oregon’s projected General Fund ending balance stands at $400 million.

About the Office of Economic Analysis

The Office of Economic Analysis provides objective forecasts of the state’s economy, revenue, populations, corrections population and Youth Authority population. These forecasts are used across state government and by the public for a variety of reasons, including the state budgeting process. To explore recent reports or learn more about OEA’s forecasting work, visit the Office of Economic Analysis website.

State Hires Legal Expert For Moda Center Negotiations - 08/06/26

Salem, OR — The State of Oregon announced today that it has hired attorney Eric Andalman as a Special Assistant Attorney General to advise the Oregon Department of Administrative Services on the renovation project at the Moda Center in Portland. Andalman’s work will focus on the creation of the Moda Center joint authority and the state’s participation in the arena renovation project.

Andalman is a partner at King & Spalding and a highly experienced legal and strategic advisor whose practice concentrates on complex transactions and large-scale infrastructure development, particularly in the sports and entertainment sector. He has advised on mergers, acquisitions, financing, and investments involving major professional sports leagues and teams, while also leading the negotiation and structuring of architectural, construction, engineering, and development agreements for more than $25 billion in stadium, arena, training center, and mixed-use venue projects across the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, MLS, UEFA, and NCAA landscapes. His work includes contributions to more than 25 arenas, stadiums, and training centers.

“We are excited to have Eric on board as we negotiate the state’s participation in the Moda Center project,” said Betsy Imholt, Director of the Oregon Department of Administrative Services. “Eric and his specialized expertise will help the state as we work to ensure public dollars are invested in a way that delivers for taxpayers while also protecting their investment in the Moda Center.”

“I am honored to serve as Special Assistant Attorney General for the state of Oregon at such a pivotal moment,” said Andalman. “The Portland Trail Blazers are more than a professional basketball team. They are a cornerstone of Oregon’s identity, economic vitality, and civic pride. We recognize that we have a unique opportunity, which we do not take lightly. We are committed to working collaboratively with all stakeholders to identify a durable, long-term solution that keeps the Trail Blazers in Oregon, maximizes its positive impact in the region, and strengthens its role as a catalyst for community engagement and impact, economic growth, investment, and regional development in Oregon for generations to come.