UCCS Faculty Algorithm Reveals Undervalued And Overvalued Quarterbacks In NFL Draft (Photo) -04/23/25

As the 2025 NFL draft approaches, we use an algorithm (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221721002034?via%3Dihub) to evaluate how prospect quarterbacks will perform at the professional level, challenging traditional scouting rankings. The algorithm reveals undervalued players like Jackson Dart and Jalen Milroe, while questioning the hype around Shedeur Sanders. By emphasising rushing ability, the algorithm provides a new way to evaluate quarterbacks and their potential success in the NFL.

 

Pregame huddle: How the algorithm sizes up quarterbacks

The algorithm, developed by Joe Craig at University of Colorado Colorado Springs and Niven Winchester at Auckland University of technology, uses data from college games to predict the performance of rookie quarterbacks in the NFL. Quarterback performance is measured using ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), a numerical measure of quarterback performance that ranges from zero to 100, with higher numbers indicating better performances. The algorithm determined that to succeed in the NFL quarterbacks must be good passers but rushing ability also matters.

 

The algorithm estimates each quarterback’s Max5-QBR, which represents the projected maximum QBR value a quarterback is likely to achieve in their first five years in the NFL. 

 

Evaluating 2025 draft quarterbacks

Max5-QBR values for the top-ranked quarterbacks in the 2025 NFL draft and ESPN scout scores are displayed in the table below. 

 

 

 

Jackson Dart has the highest expected Max5-QBR value (56.6), and is consequently the algorithm’s top-rated draft pick, followed by Cam Ward (56.3), and Jalen Milroe (53.8). Quarterbacks with the highest scout scores are Ward (90), Shedeur Sanders (90), and Dart (87).
 

Differences between the algorithm’s rankings and scout scores can be used to identify undervalued and overvalued prospects. Dart is undervalued – he is the top draft prospect according to the algorithm, but scouts rate him only as the third-best contender. 

 

Other quarterbacks that are undervalued by scouts include Jalen Milroe (ranked third by the algorithm but fifth by scouts), and Dillon Gabriel (ranked fifth by the algorithm but eighth by scouts).

The most overvalued top quarterback according to the algorithm is Shedeur Sanders, who is ranked equal first by scouts but only sixth by the algorithm.

 

The difference in rankings arises from the algorithm’s emphasis on rushing ability, which, based on historical data, scouts tend to undervalue when assessing quarterback prospects. Specifically, when scout scores and a measure of rushing ability are included in the algorithm, rushing skill has a positive and statistically significant effect on future NFL performance, indicating that it is not fully accounted for in scout evaluations. The algorithm finds that strong rushing skills will enhance these quarterbacks’ performance in the NFL, possibly because effective rushing at opportune times enables quarterbacks to gain the additional yards required to be awarded a new set of downs. 

 

Among the top quarterback draft prospects, Dart has the best college rushing statistics. Milroe and Gabriel, two other undervalued quarterbacks, also posted strong rushing statistics during their college careers. 

 

At the other end of the scale, Sanders averaged –0.5 yards per rush in the 2024 season and has the weakest college rushing statistics among the top quarterback prospects.

 

How has the algorithm performed in the past?

A systemic analysis (see Figure 3 of the article describing the algorithm) reveals that the algorithm’s predicted NFL performance of college quarterbacks is more closely correlated with actual output than a prediction model based solely on scout scores.  

 

Although the algorithm’s highly rated draft picks don’t always work out in the NFL, two recent examples are noteworthy. First, the algorithm ranked Jayden Daniels the top 2024 draft quarterback by a large margin, despite scouts ranking him the second-best quarterback. In 2025, Daniels won NFL Rookie of the Year and was selected for the Pro Bowl. 

 

Second, Lamar Jackson, who was the NFL’s MVP in 2019 and 2023, was considered the top quarterback in the 2018 NFL draft by the algorithm but only the fifth best prospect by scouts. 

 

Both Daniels’ and Jackson’s college rushing statistics were considerably better than other quarterbacks in their respective draft years. 

 

Not a vintage year

The algorithm also supports the general impression that the 2025 quarterback draft lacks standout talent. In the 2024 draft, Daniels’ predicted Max5-QBR was 66.7, and all drafts since 2021 have at least one quarterback with a predicted Max5-QBR greater than 60. In contrast, the top prospect for the 2025 draft (Dart) is expected record a Max5-QBR of just 56.6.

 

The final play

As the NFL draft unfolds, the algorithm's highlights undervalued prospects like Dart and Milroe. With rushing ability proving key to success, it will be interesting to see if teams recognise this or rely on traditional scouting rankings.

Theatreworks Announces New Artistic Director And Expanded Leadership Model As Company Approaches 50th Birthday -04/10/25

As Theatreworks approaches its milestone 50th season, the company is embracing a new chapter—one marked by both continuity and thoughtful growth. Today, Theatreworks announces a reimagined leadership structure that includes the creation of a new general director position alongside the appointment of only its third artistic director since its founding in 1975.

 

This updated model is the result of months of collaboration between Theatreworks staff and advisory board, Ent Center for the Arts leadership, UCCS Chancellor Jennifer Sobanet, and faculty partners. The new structure will place two senior leaders at the helm: a general director to guide strategic operations, and an artistic director to lead the company’s creative vision—supporting the artists, technicians, and storytellers who bring each production to life.

 

“In late 2024, we began a series of conversations around what kind of leadership model would best serve Theatreworks, UCCS, and our broader community,” said David Siegel, Executive Director of the Ent Center for the Arts. “It quickly became clear that expecting one person to carry the full weight of both administrative and artistic leadership was not sustainable. This new structure will allow us to support artists more deeply, better engage with our patrons and donors, and create new opportunities for young people in our community to fall in love with theatre.”

 

The national search for Theatreworks’ general director will officially launch in the coming weeks, with a diverse group of stakeholders from across the Theatreworks community participating in the hiring process.

 

“Engagement in the arts creates fertile soil for innovative new ideas,” said UCCS Chancellor Jennifer Sobanet. “As UCCS continues to invest in creativity and cross-disciplinary collaboration—especially through initiatives like C3 Innovation at UCCS—we see Theatreworks and the Ent Center for the Arts as essential to our innovation ecosystem. Creativity fuels student success, faculty engagement, and meaningful partnerships across our community.”

 

The Theatreworks Advisory Board voted unanimously on Tuesday to welcome Max Shulman as the company’s next artistic director. Max will immediately begin leading the artistic charge for the Theatreworks 50th Birthday Season and will step fully into the role this summer.

 

A familiar face to many, Max is an Associate Professor of Theatre in the UCCS Visual and Performing Arts Department, where he has taught for the past eight years. He currently serves as director of the Heller Center for the Arts and Humanities and has directed numerous productions for both Theatreworks and the UCCS Theatre Program—including An Iliad, Pericles, and Henry IV/V.

 

Max also leads the HomeFront Theatre Project, which presents performance events centered on the experiences of veterans and active-duty military personnel. In 2020, he received a National Endowment for the Humanities grant for his project “From the Battlefield and Back Again.”

 

His scholarly work focuses on 19th and early 20th century U.S. theatre, with publications in Theatre Survey, Modern Drama, Theatre Topics, and more. Max holds a Ph.D. in Drama from Tufts University and degrees in Theatre and English from Northwestern. Before entering academia, he spent more than a decade as a working actor in New York City, performing in regional theatres across the country.

 

“I’ve made my life in the theatre - mostly as a director and educator. I always marvel at its rich history, and its capacity to astonish and explore what it means to be a human being.” said Shulman. “Theatreworks has always stayed true to its values: respect for artists, a love of challenging stories, and a deep commitment to community. Colorado Springs has a vibrant theatre scene, and I’m honored to help carry that momentum forward—building on what’s here and contributing to its next chapter as we celebrate our 50th season and beyond.”

 

Upon learning of Max’s new role, longtime Theatreworks patrons Trice and Randy Dipner responded, “We’ve watched Theatreworks grow and evolve over the decades, and this feels like such a natural and inspiring next step. Max has always brought a depth of feeling to every production with which he is involved — we’re thrilled to see him step into this role."

 

To celebrate what’s ahead, Theatreworks will host a 50th Birthday Season Sharing Party for the community on Monday, April 14 at 7 p.m. at the Ent Center for the Arts. Join us for a festive evening of small bites, beverages, and big reveals as we unveil the season lineup and toast to the future.

 

“On behalf of the Theatreworks Advisory Board, I’m delighted to welcome Max into this new role,” said Lynne Hastings, Chair of the Theatreworks Board. “Max is already part of the Theatreworks story, and we’re confident he’ll continue our 50-year tradition of theatre that challenges us, reflects our shared humanity, and celebrates the many voices that make up our community and our world.”

 

About Theatreworks Colorado Springs: Founded in 1975, Theatreworks is dedicated to connecting, empowering, and delighting the community through the transformative power of live performance. Theatreworks has grown as a vibrant and inclusive space for artists and audiences alike. Visit entarts.org/theatre

 

About the Ent Center for the Arts: Located on the UCCS campus, the Ent Center for the Arts is a firstclass facility fostering creativity and collaboration. It serves as a central space for the arts, bringing together diverse ideas and people.